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The longevity of consumer electronics and etc

Everything we buy gets thrown away.  99.9% of what your grandparents bought is gone, as is 99% of what your parents have purchased.  Most of it went into a landfill, or was burned, or recycled, or whatever.

I'd say roughly 99% of what I bought before 2005 is gone.

Sure, some of it is still around.  Most of it is gone, including the vast majority of consumer electronics.  All those CRT TVs, radios,  and early generation "flat panel" TVs are gone, with few exceptions.

But here I want to predict and/or review how long stuff lasts.  

Necessary Widgets 

Let's assume for a moment that anything we buy is a necessity.  I know that's not true, but this is more of a practical thought experiment than an attempt to model a so-called "ideal".

Obviously, a necessary widget that has a useful life of 10 years is going to produce half as much waste as a necessary widget that lasts 5 years. 

Here I'm just going to list some things that I own (or have owned), and rate them in terms of longevity.  I'm going to ignore costs like cables and power, even though they are necessary for function of these things.

Apple Airtags

  • My cost: $29
  • Purchase Year: 2021
  • My Lifespan Expectation: 15 years (2036)
  • Actual Lifespan: TBD
  • Things required: Replacement CR2032 cells are expected annually
  • EOL expections: Expect the technology to become obsolete, or destroyed from use.
  • Final Value: e-waste.

iPhone 6S

  • My cost: $600 (ignores taxes, accessories, and any discounts)
  • Purchase Year: 2015
  • My Lifespan Expectation: 7 years (2022)
  • Actual Lifespan: TBD.
  • Things required: Periodic battery replacements (perhaps one battery every 2.5 years)
  • EOL expections: Expect the hardware to become unsupported.  As it gets older, it is less likely to be support modern user demands.  These things are simple, so I assume that they will last a long time, a lot like how the simpler iPods are still usable to this day.
  • Final Value: Will likely sell, be used for ~ +1 more years, and then become e-waste.

Apple TV HD (4th gen)

  • My cost: $150 (ignores taxes, accessories, and any discounts)
  • Purchase Year: 2015
  • My Lifespan Expectation: 11 years (2026)
  • Actual Lifespan: TBD
  • Things required: Nothing expected.  Maybe the remote?
  • EOL expections: Expect the hardware to become unsupported. As it gets older, it is less likely to be support modern user demands.  However, as these are still sold as "new", I expect them to be supported for many more years.
  • Final Value: Will likely be useful for special purposes for a little while, then become e-waste.

Samsung 4k LED TV (40 inch display)

  • My cost: $240 (ignores taxes, accessories)
  • Purchase Year: 2019
  • Current Lifespan Expectation: 20 years (2039)
  • Actual Lifespan: TBD.
  • Things required: Nothing expected.
  • EOL expections: Expect failure.
  • Final Value: e-waste.

Apple MacBook Air (M1 2020)

  • My cost: $900 (ignores taxes, accessories)
  • Purchase Year: 2020
  • Current Lifespan Expectation: 7 years (2027)
  • Actual Lifespan: TBD
  • Things required:  Perhaps one battery every 4 years
  • EOL expections: Expect the hardware to become unsupported. As it gets older, it is less likely to be support modern user demands.
  • Final Value: Will likely sell, be used for ~ 2 more years, and then become e-waste.

Apple Airport Express N (1st Generation)

  • My cost: $100 (ignores taxes, accessories)
  • Purchase Year: 2011
  • Current Lifespan Expectation: 15 years (2026)
  • Actual Lifespan: TBD
  • Things required:  None
  • EOL expections: As it gets older, it is less likely to be support modern user demands.  It is close to that point, but it still works adequately well. The most substantial concern is security.
  • Final Value: e-waste.
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