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Broadcast TV had its day. It's time to move on.

After 90 years, traditional US television broadcasting is fading fast.

ATSC 3.0, the newest US TV broadcasting standard, looks great on its face: modern, efficient, and flexible.  But there are growing problems, a tired plot that has been repeating over and over for all US broadcasters:

  • Very poor content.  Broadcast TV is loaded with very low-value content.  Why watch broadcast TV if the programming is abysmal?  Yes, there are some excellent programs, but that's about 1%.
  • High ad frequency.  Broadcast TV has a huge and growing volume of advertising. Why watch broadcast TV if the ads are so amazingly annoying, and when all of them feel like money scams? QVC may be profitable, but is it a significant value to the public?
  • High cost.  The broadcast industry is working to make the tuner in your brand new TV obsolete in just a few years. Why buy a new TV today if it is just going to be obsolete in a couple of years?
  • Blocking.  The broadcast industry is actively pushing signal encryption, making watching TV less flexible than ever.  Why watch broadcast TV programming if it is less convenient than it was in 1980?

But is it all bad?  No!

  • There is a huge amount of content on-demand and on-line.  Broadcast is more irrelevant than ever, but on-demand IP-based video is stronger than ever.
  • The current huge block of 34 TV channels is ripe for repurposing into hyper-useful IP-based services, including but not limited to mobile ISPs and cellular services.
  • High quality monitors without ATSC3 tuners are a better and more affordable choice.  TV manufacturers have caught on, and are reducing their TV sales growth.

Is it the end of US TV forever?

Hopefully, as we know it, yes: I hope to see the US converting the 34 TV channels to 5G mobile services. 

Seem impossible?  Think again!  5G Broadcast TV is coming in strong, with a lot of serious work going on right now.  This promises to put the old fashion notion of "TV is its own tech" to rest.  The next generation will be a philosophical merger of Internet technologies, 5G mobile services, and Broadcast TV.

Using this strategy, we can still have broadcast TV like we did for decades, but it can be played on everything and anything, from a living room TV to a computer to a cellular phone.  Even better, it leverages the existing 5G cellular network, minimizing costs for both users and broadcasters, while greatly improving coverage.  Video broadcasts could then be delivered through cell towers, the internet, satellite, mmwave, WiFi, or any other medium. 

Will this happen soon?

Broadcasters are aiming to pull the ATSC 1.0 plug on most stations in a little more than 2 years, but in reality they are taking steps to end it now.  It seems unlikely that the people will spend serious money on a replacement TVs, or buy expensive tuner set-top boxes for no reason other than the promise of a benefit to broadcasters.

Instead, I see people, manufacturers, and countries voting with their wallet and jumping into 5G video broadcasts, leaving ATSC 3.0 to be the end of the line.

 


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