2017-03-18

WTF is going on with Fiber to the Home?

A few years ago we were all excited that Google was getting into the Fiber Internet business.  And before that, Verizon was getting into the game with its FiOS brand.  Now they've all pretty much stopped. What happened?

Part of the issue is that Comcast and its industry brothers have strong monopoly-like powers and the ability to direct Congress and the President.   The Cable TV industry, operating as a single monopolistic business, is a very powerful force despite extremely poor ratings and ever-rising high prices.

The other death knell to Google Fiber and Verizon FiOS is Wireless Internet.  Not today's wireless, but next year's wireless.
With Comcast working towards a monopoly of wireless spectrum, it is financially irresponsible for any wire-based ISP to continue to build out their services. - Lloyd Emerson
It takes a ton of money to string up wires along the street and drag them into a house.  Even a simple thought experiment shows that  a reasonable $200 per house would turn into a lot of money in a region with a million homes.  What if you could transition that cost from $200 per house to $3 per house?  That'd be a HUGE savings.  Why spend $200 million per city today, when you can spend $3 million per city in a couple years?  Sure, you'd lose two years worth of revenue, but you'd save $197 million. 

And that's the future of wireless.  This isn't WiFi, and it isn't Cellular.  Instead, its 802.11af and related technologies, which promises that a handful of access points will cover a city.   The ISP would set up 802.11af access points strategically, ensuring good, high-speed coverage throughout town.  Then you'd buy an inexpensive 802.11af transceiver that you buy at BestBuy, plug it into your router, and configure an account at your ISP.  You'd get to chose your plan for a monthly fee.   You'd get Internet at your house immediately, and there would be no wires to string up, route, or repair.

Bye-bye Comcast?  Not so fast!  Congress is planning to set this up as a monopoly.  Those wireless signals would be on non-public frequencies, and so the highest bidder would likely gain control of the airwaves.  Who has a few billion in the bank so they can buy wireless rights?  Oh yeah, your local cable TV monopoly and multi-billion-dollar firm that has Congress and the President in their back pocket .... Comcast and their industry colleague.

Fiber to the Home is dead.  So is Coaxial cabling and twisted pair.  Wireless is much cheaper to deploy, and so wireless ISPs will have significantly lower costs.

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